Should you be all in on rookies Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston and Zay Flowers? Are rookie wide receivers great values, particularly first-round picks?
In 2022, we saw rookie wide receivers Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson finish among the Top 20 at the position, with Drake London as WR30, Christian Watson WR35 in just 14 games (with limited use until his return from injury), and George Pickens WR37. All finished Top 50 in FPPG as well (min 100 routes).
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In 2021, Ja’Marr Chase was WR5/6 (Overall/FPPG) with Jaylen Waddle WR16/20, Amon-Ra St. Brown WR24/29, DeVonta Smith WR29/46, and Elijah Moore WR47/33. While the rule used to be “year 3 for a wide receiver is the peak breakout season,” players have been providing value as rookies more frequently in recent years. At first glance, rookie receivers — particularly early-drafted rookies — are immediately valuable. But how valuable, how consistent, how predictive? That’s what led to this study.
Are we undervaluing rookie wide receivers in fantasy football drafts?
The data set:
- All rookie wideouts (aka, first year in NFL)
- Sample is past 15 years (2008-2022)
- r2 = 0.315 for Half-PPR FPPG (by far the most-accurate pre-draft correlation metric — next closest was the 20-Yard Shuttle at a meaningless 0.031)
Let’s get to the visual.
The chart shows a strong correlation between NFL Draft Round and Half-PPR FPPG in the wideout’s rookie year. In fact, the average FPPG for rookies drafted in Round 1 is 8.3 (141.1 points over a 17-game season), and it drops to 6.0 for Round 2, then 3.9, 3.3, 3.3, 1.7 and 1.7 for Rounds 3-7. Undrafted wideouts averaged just 1.5 FPPG — just four reached 100+ fantasy points (Allen Hurns, Anthony Armstrong, Marlon Brown, Keelan Cole) and four had at least 8.0 FPPG (Hurns, Armstrong, Brown, Preston Williams).
The drop in FPPG isn’t the only area where Draft Round correlates to output. Average Snap% (0.470 r2) drops (with a weird little jump in Rounds 5-6), Average Route% (0.712 r2) all see a similar decline, as does Average TmTGT% (0.889 r2).
Here’s the visual for each of these four telling statistics — Half FPPG, Snap%, Route%, TmTGT%
So far, we know that Draft Round helps predict NFL success with more correlation than most meaningless pre-draft metrics, etc., but not as strong as some of the best statistics. Putting up 8.3 FPPG and 141.1 fantasy points will regularly put a wideout in the Top 50 for FPPG and Top 40 in points. Those are starters in any “standard” 12-team, 3WR, 1FLX league.
Going back to the 2022 rookies, all but Burks exceeded their ADP/draft cost. London was drafted as WR41 (using industry consensus) and finished in points at WR30, Olave’s ADP put him at WR44; he finished as WR25. Wilson was WR49/19, Dotson WR59/50 and Burks was the one who disappointed at WR50/80. Jameson Williams’ injury was left out of this list.
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In 2021, Chase was WR28/5, Waddle was WR44/16, Smith WR35/29, Rashod Bateman WR73/74, and Kadarius Toney WR80/95 — both Bateman and Toney missed several games.
In the 2008-2022 seasons, precisely 50% (25 of 50) of first-round receivers finished in the Top 50 for points or Top 40 in FPPG. That number drops precipitously with 27% (18 of 66) for Round 2. Here’s the full look.
- R1: 25-of-50 (50%)
- R2: 18-of-66 (27%)
- R3: 7-of-55 (13%)
- R4: 4-of-53 (8%)
- R5: 5-of-37 (14%)
- R6: 1-of-39 (3%)
- R7: 0-for-38 (0%)
Additionally, of the 39 NFL Draft first-round receivers since 2013 (as far back as ADP data consistently shows), the highest ADP was WR20 (Amari Cooper, 2015) with the lowest being several undrafted receivers and an average ADP of 53.3. Yes, the average cost isn’t even inside the Top 50 receivers while the average points scored for non-injured rookies is 130.1. Looking at those 39 receivers, we also had 21 exceed their ADP and six who were within 10% of their projected ADP fantasy points. For those who failed to reach either of those, many saw inconsistent playing time or a few missed games (not a significant lost season like Jameson Williams, 2022). Yes, there were a few outright busts, such as N’Keal Harry (2016), but the majority (27 of 39, 69.2%) met or exceeded the cost, and the ones who didn’t were regularly easy to cut/see things weren’t set up for success (buried on the depth chart) and/or had an insignificant cost (ADP of WR50+, which is double-digit draft rounds).
One interesting note: the third-year breakout is still a thing… somewhat. It’s actually more Year 2 being the most significant year for breakouts — 14.5% improvement (from the previous season on average) for first-round draft capital and a 22.7% improvement overall. Year 3 is only 5.3% and 11.1%, and first-round draft capital receivers saw another jump from Year 4 to Year 5 (7.7%) after dropping from Years 3-4 (9.0%). For all receivers, the peak hits in Year 7, though the yearly improvement is inconsequential after the 11.3% jump from Year 4 to 5.
In the end, it’s clear rookie wideouts drafted in the first round are more than worth their risk… as long as they continue to cost a low-WR2 price at most (for clear starting opportunities) and more often a WR3/WR4 price. Additionally, even if a rookie ends up in a questionable situation (ex: Dotson), we should recognize the NFL Draft capital and draft that receiver rounds earlier (mid draft instead of last few rounds), especially compared to fading vets. The excitement for that shiny new toy is warranted in this study.
(Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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